GasRadar Daily Briefing - Wednesday, March 11, 2026

Market Overview

TTF prices collapsed 16.74% to EUR 47.0/MWh, erasing most of last week's geopolitical-driven gains. The contract is now back near the middle of its 7-day range (EUR 31.96–54.29), reflecting fading risk premiums after U.S. political intervention eased Middle East tensions. Today's low of EUR 47.0 marks a 25% drop from last week's peak (EUR 54.29 on March 3).

Storage Update

EU storage remains critically low at 29.4% (vs. 43.8% 5-year average), with zero net injections. Structural deficits persist:
- Northwest Europe remains most exposed: Netherlands (9.2%), Germany (21.4%), and France (22.0%) show minimal rebuild momentum.
- Southern buffers hold: Spain (55.8%) and Portugal (76.7%) remain well-stocked but geographically disconnected from core demand centers.
Bullish signal: The -14.4pp storage deficit vs. seasonal norms leaves markets vulnerable to winter 2026 supply shocks if injections don’t accelerate.

Weather & Demand

Mild conditions continue to cap heating demand:
- EU-weighted HDDs at 5.9 today, below seasonal norms.
- Key cities (Helsinki 4.6°C, Warsaw 7.9°C) reflect limited cold spikes.
Bearish near-term: Forecasts indicate warmer-than-average temperatures through mid-March, suppressing gas-for-power demand.

Supply & Geopolitics

Mixed signals dominate:
- LNG disruptions: Qatar’s export halt (longest since 2008) and tanker diversions to Asia tighten global supply (bullish).
- Middle East risks: Oil market turbulence (Reuters) and potential IEA strategic reserve releases (bearish) create cross-commodity volatility.
- Venezuela developments: Chevron/Shell oil deals could indirectly ease gas supply constraints if U.S. sanctions ease (neutral).

Bottom Line

Neutral-to-bearish bias with TTF pressured by mild weather and fading geopolitical premiums, but structural storage risks loom; watch for LNG flow shifts and injection trends.