GasRadar Daily Briefing — Friday, November 13, 2026

Market Overview

TTF closed at EUR 93.70/MWh, marking a seventh consecutive session of gains and the highest print since the late-October cycle peak. The move extends a powerful recovery from Monday's EUR 82.33 low — a +13.8% rally in just four sessions — and confirms that the early-November capitulation has been fully reversed. The intraday range was wide (EUR 89.69–93.71), with the market closing at the day's high, signalling no seller conviction into the weekend. The prior week's breakdown below EUR 90 now looks like a bear trap: the market has reclaimed the entire EUR 85–94 band in under a week.

Storage Update

EU aggregate storage sits at 71.25% full, a striking -18.7pp below the five-year average of 90.0% for this date — the lowest inventory of the 2020s entering winter. The drawdown is accelerating at -0.35%/day, with several core markets bleeding faster: France (-0.5%), Denmark (-0.6%), Bulgaria (-0.6%), and Germany (-0.4%). The distribution is deeply bifurcated — Poland (96.4%), Portugal (95.5%), and Italy (87.9%) are comfortable, while Slovakia (50.7%), Latvia (52.6%), and Germany (57.7%) anchor the bottom. Germany's position is the key vulnerability: Europe's largest consumer entering winter with barely half its capacity filled.

Weather & Demand

EU weighted HDD today is 12.2, with a genuinely cold northern tier driving demand: Warsaw at 0.3°C, Helsinki 1.6°C, Stockholm 2.9°C, Brussels 3.1°C, and Berlin 3.4°C. This is meaningful early-season heating load across the highest-consumption corridors — and it explains both the accelerating storage draws and the price bid. With temperatures in the low single digits across Central and Northern Europe, the market is pricing real physical tightness rather than sentiment.

Winter Stress

The GasRadar Winter Stress Monitor projects a median end-of-season storage level of 24.4% on April 1, 2027, with a 75% probability of finishing below the 30% threshold. The 30-day median projection (December 11) sits at 60.8%, down -0.27pt from yesterday's run. This is a projection of physical storage, not a price forecast — but it underscores that the system is entering winter with materially less buffer than any recent year.

Supply & Geopolitics

The news flow is dominated by bearish-to-neutral supply signals. Venture Global has asked the DOE to approve LNG re-exports from its CP2 project — a potential incremental source of flexible cargoes into the Atlantic basin. Meanwhile, Kushner's comments on a "largest prisoner exchange" in the Russia-Ukraine war have revived peace-deal speculation, which could eventually ease geopolitical risk premia on Russian flows. On the bullish side, oil is rising as Trump dims Iran deal hopes, and the broader energy complex is firming. The dominant narrative remains structural: multiple outlets are flagging Europe entering winter with its lowest gas inventory of the 2020s, which is the single most supportive fundamental in the market.

Bottom Line

Bullish — TTF's four-session surge to EUR 93.70 is fundamentally justified by record-low storage (-18.7pp vs. 5-year average), genuine early-winter heating demand, and a Winter Stress Monitor showing a 75% probability of sub-30% end-of-season inventories; the key risk is a sudden Russia-Ukraine de-escalation that unwinds the geopolitical premium.

Full projection, uncertainty range and track record: GasRadar Winter Stress Monitor.