GasRadar Daily Briefing — Monday, November 09, 2026
Market Overview
TTF is holding at EUR 85.59/MWh, unchanged on the day, but the flat print masks a violent week. The market has shed roughly EUR 18.35 (-17.7%) from the October 30 peak of EUR 103.94, closing last week at the bottom of the 7-day range (EUR 85.03 — EUR 103.94). The intraday high of EUR 90.70 against a low of EUR 84.95 shows a wide, unresolved session — sellers still control the tape, but buyers defended the EUR 85 handle.
The structure is bearish short-term: six consecutive weekly gains have unwound into a sharp corrective leg, with the Nov 4 print (EUR 85.03) marking the cycle low so far. The failure to reclaim EUR 90 on any close this week would confirm the rally's exhaustion. That said, EUR 85 is a prior resistance-turned-support level from the October breakout — its defense today is the single most important technical signal on the board.
Storage Update
The storage picture is the core bullish anchor. EU aggregate sits at 72.65% full, a staggering -17.8pp below the 5-year average of 90.5% for this date. Inventories are drawing at -0.33%/day, and the distribution is deeply uneven:
- Poland (97.8%), Portugal (95.5%), Sweden (90.5%) and Denmark (90.1%) are comfortable.
- Germany (59.2%), Netherlands (63.8%), Austria (64.6%) and Slovakia (52.1%) — the core Northwest European demand centres — are critically thin.
- Latvia (51.1%) is the lowest in the bloc.
- France (-0.8%/day) is drawing fastest among large consumers.
With the heating season barely underway, the bloc is entering winter with a ~18pp deficit to normal. That is the structural bid under this market and the reason the selloff has stalled near EUR 85 rather than cascading toward EUR 75.
Weather & Demand
EU weighted HDD is 11.1 today, with the coldest readings concentrated in the north and east: Stockholm 2.4°C, Berlin 4.0°C, Helsinki 4.1°C, Munich 4.6°C, Dublin 4.8°C. These are seasonally cool but not extreme values — demand is firm, not yet stressed. The key risk is that current storage draws (-0.33%/day) are occurring on moderate heating load; a genuine cold snap would accelerate the draw materially and expose the German/Dutch deficit.
Winter Stress Monitor
GasRadar's own projection of physical EU storage puts the median end-of-season level (April 1, 2027) at 24.9%, with a 72% probability of finishing below 30%. The 30-day median projection (December 7) is 63.2%, revised -0.30pt lower since yesterday's run. This is a projection of physical inventory, not a price forecast — but it underscores that the storage deficit is not self-correcting and leaves the bloc with minimal buffer against a late-winter cold event.
Supply & Geopolitics
Headlines are mixed but lean bearish for near-term risk premia:
- Iran: Trump's comment that new attacks are "unlikely" pushed oil lower and removed a geopolitical bid from energy complexes broadly. Separately, Iran's plan for a 110 Bcm gas pipeline with Russia is a longer-dated supply signal.
- Iraq: Production suspended at the Khor Mor gas field after a drone attack — a genuine supply disruption, though small in European terms. Iraq's Hormuz export understandings with the US are a mild offset.
- Algeria: LNG exports +51% — incremental Mediterranean supply, mildly bearish for TTF.
- Russia/Ukraine: Strikes on power substations and Black Sea shipping keep tail-risk alive but have not moved the curve today.
- US policy: Democratic midterm gains and the G7 Paris talks introduce uncertainty into future US LNG permitting and export policy — a watch item, not a today driver.
Bottom Line
Neutral-to-bullish: the -17.8pp storage deficit and a 72% probability of sub-30% end-of-season inventories provide a hard floor near EUR 85, but the loss of geopolitical premium and a corrective price structure cap upside until cold weather or a supply shock forces the market to reprice winter risk.
Full projection, uncertainty range and track record: GasRadar Winter Stress Monitor.