GasRadar Daily Briefing — Wednesday, November 11, 2026
Market Overview
TTF is trading at EUR 84.95/MWh, unchanged on the day but holding near the bottom of a violently repriced range. The 7-day band of EUR 82.33–93.45 tells the story: the six-week rally that peaked at EUR 103.94 on Oct 30 has fully unwound, with the market surrendering roughly -18% in under two weeks. Monday's print of EUR 82.33 marked the cycle low, and the subsequent two sessions have produced only a tepid stabilization — the day's high of EUR 84.96 versus a low of EUR 81.47 shows an intraday range of nearly EUR 3.50 with no directional resolution. The market is consolidating, not recovering. Momentum is exhausted, and the absence of a meaningful bounce off the EUR 82 floor suggests sellers remain in control of the tape.
Storage Update
The storage picture is the single most bullish structural input in this market. EU aggregate sits at 72.0% full, a staggering -18.2pp below the five-year average of 90.2% for this date. Withdrawals are running at -0.39%/day, and the distribution is deeply uneven. The core demand centres are the weakest: Germany at 58.5% (-0.5%/day), Netherlands at 63.1%, Austria at 64.0%, and Slovakia at just 51.4% — the lowest in the bloc. Latvia (52.4%) is the only Baltic state flagged, and it is drawing down. Meanwhile, the periphery is comparatively comfortable: Poland (97.1%), Portugal (95.5%), and Italy (88.6%) are well-supplied. The implication is clear — the marginal buyer of winter flexibility is Northwest Europe, and it enters the heating season with a substantial deficit. This is a structurally supportive backdrop that caps downside even as speculative length unwinds.
Weather & Demand
EU weighted HDD today is 10.9, with the coldest centres concentrated in the north and east: Munich (4.2C), Helsinki (4.3C), Warsaw (4.7C), Stockholm (4.8C), and Berlin (5.2C). These are seasonally normal-to-cool readings for mid-November, and they are pulling gas into the system at a time when storage is already 18 points light. The demand signal is quietly bullish — not extreme, but persistent, and it reinforces the drawdown trend visible across German, Dutch, and Austrian inventories. Any sustained cold shift from here would find the market poorly cushioned.
Winter Stress
The GasRadar Winter Stress Monitor projects a median end-of-season storage level of 25.2% on April 1, 2027, with a 71% probability of finishing below the 30% threshold. The 30-day median projection (Dec 9) is 62.8%, and the median has edged up +0.14pt since yesterday's run. This is a projection of physical storage, not a price forecast — but it underscores that the system is tracking toward a genuinely tight end-of-winter position.
Supply & Geopolitics
Headlines are dominated by Middle East risk. Reuters reports oil rising from a two-month low as Hormuz shipping attacks offset Iran truce hopes — a reminder that Gulf transit risk remains live and could spill into broader energy sentiment. Russia shot down 92 drones over the Leningrad region, keeping the Baltic and Northwest Russian infrastructure risk premium in play. On the demand side, POSCO International boosted LNG storage 43% for a 40-day national heating buffer — a signal that Asian buyers are positioning defensively for winter, which competes for flexible LNG cargoes. The remaining pipeline headlines (Tennessee, Beetaloo, Sabah, Nigeria's AKK) are project-level and not immediately price-relevant. Macro: Fed officials opened the door to quicker rate hikes as inflation worsens — a headwind for commodity risk appetite broadly.
Bottom Line
Neutral-to-bullish — the -18.2pp storage deficit and cold Northwest European demand provide a firm floor, but exhausted momentum and macro headwinds keep TTF range-bound; the key risk is a cold-weather shift that would rapidly expose the thin German and Slovak buffers.
Full projection, uncertainty range and track record: GasRadar Winter Stress Monitor.